One thing I've been working on lately is trying to get a Burn deck together for Modern as a backup plan. I love the idea of playing Jund for all the reasons you've read about in this blog, mostly because it's fun, it's interactive, it's never too awful, it has a low fail rate, and you can really leverage your experience. Sometimes, though, it's just not as good as something else, so Burn is my Modern backup deck. The metagame as it stands now, with its Hollow Ones and Bogles, is hostile towards Jund, or anything not being equally proactive. Burn is the epitome of proactive, and sports a fantastic sideboard against the degenerate decks. The list that I've been working on is an extra-aggressive version, with a pretty serious green splash for both Wild Nacatl and Atarka's Command. In the instances where I think Jund isn't good for a weekend, it's because I want to be extra proactive, so this works out pretty well.
For all eight rounds of Day 1 of the Grand Prix, I faced matchups where I was much happier having Burn than Jund. Zoo, Griselbrand, two consecutive Eldrazi Tron decks, Mono Blue Living End, Jund Death's Shadow, Mardu Pyromancer, and Scapeshift. Lots of variation. It's so hard to pin down the Modern metagame, but I was happier with the Burn deck, even if it wasn't the exact metagame I had anticipated.
I finished the day at 5-3, losing a heartbreaker to the Scapeshift deck to miss day 2. Jund was a little absent from the top tables, except for Jadine Klomparens and Reid Duke, who are, like, the best players in the world. It is my opinion, after this weekend, that Jund as we currently know it in the Jace/Bloodbraid era is just not going to work against this level of degeneracy. Bogles, Hollow One, Ironworks, and Primeval Titan were all present in the Top 8, and the rest of the format isn't exactly a cakewalk. Here are my theories:
1. Jace and Bloodbraid have actually had the opposite effect you'd expect in Modern. Instead of promoting interactivity, they promote not interacting at all. The reason is that if the late game of the control and midgame decks are getting better, then you need to be able to win the game either before that or in spite of that (via Hexproof or graveyard strategies, etc). Hollow One and Bogles are the best of both worlds here, since they are hard to interact with and very fast.
2. Bloodbraid Elf constricts the Jund deck in a way that makes it unable to fight against this scenario. The inclusion of Bloodbraid makes the Jund deck play significantly different card choices than it otherwise would. You want to maximize on three mana spells so you get the most value out of Bloodbraid, and you want to make your deck full of cards that are good in all kinds of board positions. Bloodbraid is certainly powerful, but is it worth the inclusion if it warps your deck this way? I think it depends on the makeup of the metagame, and currently I'd say no. Tempo'ing people with Bloodbraid Elf into Tarmogoyfs is just not fast enough or strong enough to compete against these Charbelcher decks. If you want to interact, Bloodbraid doesn't exactly help, and if you want to be aggressive, Jund isn't even in the same league of proactivity as the rest of these goons.
3. Bloodbraidless Jund can be good. This theory is certainly against the grain, and you've got really no reason to believe me, but I'm going to write out my plan here and see how it goes.
Bloodbraid not only constricts your deck by making your spells cost more (by this I mean, to maximize Bloodbraid's effectiveness, you play less cheap cards and more lands and more expensive spells), but it also constricts the kind of cards you can play, namely X spells. In a world where people are playing Bogles, Elves, and the omnipresent Affinity is always around the corner, Engineered Explosives out of the sideboard solves a bajillion problems, and it just can't be done with Bloodbraid in the deck. Another card that I think might be fantastic and want to try out is Gaze of Granite. The third card, specifically sideboard card, that is worse in a Bloodbraid deck is Damping Sphere. When Bloodbraid Elf costs 5, it is a lot less exciting, and I'm really looking forward to the Sphere after watching Ironworks win the Grand Prix.
As far as the main deck is concerned, I was certainly startled by how quickly we've dismissed Fatal Push from our decks. It certainly makes sense, and the format has adapted to Push as well as it realistically can, but 0 copies of what might be the most efficient removal spell ever is just amazing to me. I don't love the quad laser, since it is so lacking against some of the most important decks, but if the mirror is going to be a thing (and we're certainly worse there due to no Bloodbraids), killing an Ooze or Goyf for a single Black will be one of the ways we get ahead.
Another thing: I feel much better about playing Bitterblossom over Dark Confidant right now, and here's why:
If the monster pro Jund-lifers are whittling down on their Bob counts, then maybe I'm just way ahead of the curve? Idk, but she was the only Jund player in the Top 16, so...
This is the next Jund list I want to try out. If my theories are right, it'll be either still too slow for the format, or I'll win the next eight Modern tournaments I play.
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Bitterblossom
2 Grim Flayer
2 Scavenging Ooze
2 Tireless Tracker
2 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Fatal Push
1 Dismember
2 Dreadbore
1 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Liliana of the Veil
3 Kolaghan's Command
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Mountain
2 Ragine Ravine
1 Hissing Quagmire
2 Blooming Marsh
1 Blackcleave Cliffs
23 Land, 14 Threats, 3 Creaturelands. Sideboard:
3 Obstinate Baloth
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Blightning
3 Damping Sphere
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Murderous Cut
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Gaze of Granite
I feel like this deck might even have more late game power than a normal Jund list, since Grim Flayer, Tireless Tracker, and Huntmaster of the Fells, and of course Bitterblossom shell out tons of value to close the game. I love that Hissing Quagmire can tangle with Gurmag Anglers, Death's Shadows, and Lhurgoyfs, which Raging Ravine cannot, and still threatens Jaces that are noticeably absent but are always looming. I dislike the lack of graveyard hate, but the most prominent graveyard deck, Hollow One, can easily skirt around it, so it might not be that good anyways. The sideboard lacks ways of beating true control decks, but those are few and far between currently.
We'll see what happens. Always Be Tuning.
